The fundamental landscape remains unchanged, with SHFE zinc recording a bearish candlestick with no upper shadow. [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM October 13:

       Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,022.00/mt, with its center rising rapidly in early trading and hitting a high of $3,060.00/mt. Entering the night session, bulls reduced their positions, pushing the zinc price down to a low of $2,970.00/mt. Although it attempted to recover some losses by the end of the session, the upward momentum was limited, and it finally closed down at $2,984.50/mt, a decrease of $29.5/mt or 0.98%. Trading volume decreased to 117,000 lots, and open interest fell by 54 lots to 220,000 lots. On October 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 300 mt to 37,950 mt, a drop of 0.78%. Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 20/60-day daily averages providing some support below. Trump stated on social media that he would impose 100% tariffs on China, deepening market concerns about subsequent trade. Amid uncertainty, many bulls exited, leading to a decline in LME zinc.

  Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2511 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt. It immediately hit a high of 22,450 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, touching a low of 22,100 yuan/mt by the end. It finally closed down at 22,110 yuan/mt, a decrease of 160 yuan/mt or 0.72%. Trading volume decreased to 105,000 lots, and open interest fell by 477 lots to 106,000 lots. According to SMM communication, as of October 9, the total SMM zinc ingot inventory across seven regions was 150,200 mt, down 200 mt from September 25 but up 8,800 mt from September 29, indicating an increase in domestic inventory. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick with no upper shadow, suppressed by the upper Bollinger Band above and supported by the 5-day daily average below. Disturbed by tariff news, subsequent trade uncertainty remains high. From a fundamental perspective, the domestic market is still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. Today's inventory situation can be monitored. Without substantial zinc ingot exports, SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short term.